A memo from the administrators at Metropolis Health System, in response to a nationwide blood shortage, asked the care teams and doctors at all of their hospitals to be particularly conservative and judicious in how they used blood products because of the critical shortage. Phoebe, a 17-year-old girl, is being treated for leukemia at Metro Hospital, which is part of the health system. She has gone through several rounds of chemotherapy, but has not responded to the treatment.

orogeny

crust is folded and deformed by lateral compression to form a mountain range

deformation

types of deformation—

• displacement: stuff slip
• rotation
• distortion: metaphoric stresses

topography

features we see at the surface, in the verticle sense

relief

difference between highest and lowest points in an areao

mountain forming and plate boundaries

convergent bounaries

Subduction mountain building: volcanic arc behind

collisional orogones

continenant to continent convergence

Hong Kong

Banff NP

Pinnacles NP

Yosemite NP

Singapore

NYC

Shanghai

Grand Canyon NP

We need to figure out good aways of modeling/representing uncertainty.

unifying principle

• data: samples / distribution
• representation: simplify / keep what matters
• control: convex / gradient / MPC

Different things requires different techniques but broadly the structure.

contributions

• factor models of covariance
• 1d projections of distributions and distribution shaping
• informational representation: conditioning + shrinking horizon reoptimization

factor model

Suppose someone hands you a model for returns:

\begin{equation} r \approx F_{\text{base}} s + \varepsilon, s \sim \mathcal{N}\qty(0, \Omega_{\text{base}}), \epsilon \sim \mathcal{N}\qty(0, D_{\text{base}}) \end{equation}