• standard normal density function, and formula for phi for ARBITURARY normals (x-u/sigma)
  • practice using inverse phi
• BEWARE that sigma is not sigma squared
• PDF AND CDF, Mean, Var, params, Generative Story for:
  • uniform distribution and the normal distribution
  • all of these
• continuity correction
• permutation and combinations formula
• counting formulas: binning, stars and bars, and the counting methods tree from beginning of class
• probability theorems: law of total probabaly, baysian, demorgans, counting with and and or
• multinomial distribution
• binomial coefficient (i.e. combinations formula), multinomial coefficient
• joint probability distribution and their table
• Naive Bayes divison ratio trick
• relative probability

What if you don’t know about a probability of success?

Beta Distribution time!!!

Multi-Arm Bandit

See Multi-Arm Bandit

Strategies:

• upper confidence bound: take the action with theh highest n-tn-thonfidence bound
• Posterior Sampling: take a sample from each Beta Distributions distribution; take the action that has a higher probability of success based on their r

Key Sequence

Notation

New Concepts

• IID
• Zero-Sum Game
• central limit theorem
• bootstrap

Important Results / Claims

• Sum of Two Dice
• adding random variables

Questions

Interesting Factoids

Key Sequence

Notation

New Concepts

• central limit theorem
• sampling statistics

Important Results / Claims

• sample mean
• sample variance
• standard error of the mean: “variance of the mean”: “how wrong is your meassured mean”

Questions

Interesting Factoids