What if you don’t know about a probability of success?

Beta Distribution time!!!

Multi-Arm Bandit

See Multi-Arm Bandit

Strategies:

• upper confidence bound: take the action with theh highest n-tn-thonfidence bound
• Posterior Sampling: take a sample from each Beta Distributions distribution; take the action that has a higher probability of success based on their r

Key Sequence

Notation

New Concepts

• IID
• Zero-Sum Game
• central limit theorem
• bootstrap

Important Results / Claims

• Sum of Two Dice
• adding random variables

Questions

Interesting Factoids

Key Sequence

Notation

New Concepts

• central limit theorem
• sampling statistics

Important Results / Claims

• sample mean
• sample variance
• standard error of the mean: “variance of the mean”: “how wrong is your meassured mean”

Questions

Interesting Factoids

Key Sequence

Notation

New Concepts

• central limit theorem
• sampling statistics
  • sample mean, sample variance, standard error of the mean
• bootstrap

Important Results / Claims

• p-value from bootstrap

Questions

Interesting Factoids